Altcoin Season Is Emerging: Is the Crypto Market About to Turn Heads?
The crypto market is showing signs that an altcoin season may be starting, according to analysts like Swissblock and several independent experts. While Bitcoin still dominates, the current capital flows and technical indicators are painting a promising new picture for mid- and small-cap cryptocurrencies.
Altcoins Begin to Rise Amid Bitcoin’s Peak
Altcoin Vector, an institutional-level altcoin market analysis report by Swissblock, has made a clear assessment: the altcoin season has entered its early stages. According to the report, the market is witnessing a capital flow rotation from Bitcoin to altcoins, one of the key signs that have preceded altcoin bull cycles in the past.
It is worth noting that although Bitcoin has just reached a new high in July, its dominance in the market (Bitcoin Dominance) is decreasing. According to data from BeInCrypto, this index has fallen from 66% to 64%, despite the strong price increase of BTC. This shows that capital is not only focused on Bitcoin, but is spreading to other digital assets.
Impulse and Structure indicators signal a strong movement phase
Swissblock relies on two main technical indicators to come to the above conclusion: Impulse and Structure.
Impulse: Measures the percentage of altcoins showing exponential growth momentum. Since June, only 8% of altcoins have recorded a negative trend - a very low number. Historically, altcoin market bottoms have occurred when this ratio is in the range of 15–25%, meaning that the bottom may have been passed now.
Structure: Assess the market structure to determine if a breakout is in progress. According to analysis from Swissblock, the altcoin market cap (TOTAL2) has increased by 22%, breaking above resistance and sending a clear technical signal for a new bull cycle. Similar cycles in the past have resulted in capitalization increases of between 67% and 96%.
Currently, the TOTAL3 altcoin capitalization index excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum has reached $933 billion, up more than 14% in just the first few weeks of July.
Altcoin Season Index Soars, But Not Yet at the Point of “Bursting Out”
The Altcoin Season Index provided by BlockchainCenter also recorded a significant increase, reaching 35 its highest level since February. This index defines a true altcoin season when 75% of the top 50 coins outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days.
While it hasn’t yet broken out at 75, the rapid rise in the index is a notable sign, especially after previously hovering around 10–15 throughout the spring and early summer.
Market experts have mixed views
Some prominent analysts, such as TechDev and Michaël van de Poppe, are bullish on the possibility of altcoins entering a strong bull cycle. TechDev believes that the market has been “repressed” for four years and is preparing for a strong breakout. Meanwhile, Michaël recommends that now is the ideal time to allocate capital to altcoins with the aim of making a profit over the next 12 to 24 months.
However, not everyone agrees with this view.
Nicolai Sondergaard, senior researcher at Nansen, offered a cautious warning: “Even if there is an altcoin season, it will not be the same as previous cycles. The market is currently saturated with a plethora of tokens. The money may be concentrated in the hot names like ETH, SOL, or some hype projects, rather than spreading widely as before.”
He also emphasized that Bitcoin’s dominance rate remains high at 64.59% and there are no signs of a deep decline to establish a full-blown altcoin cycle.
Conclusion: Sensitive but Potential Timing
With the rapid recovery of the market since mid-June, coupled with the impressive growth in altcoin capitalization, there are many signs that we are entering the early stages of a new altcoin season. However, the differences in cash flow, investment psychology and current market structure require investors to be cautious, prioritizing a strategy of selecting projects with real potential instead of following the trend.
If the market continues to follow the path of previous cycles, the altcoin season may explode in the next few months. However, as with every growth cycle, careful preparation and risk management will still be key factors for investors to succeed.