MicroStrategy can cause the biggest risk for Bitcoin worse than Mt. GOX and 3AC?

When Bitcoin continues to make a new peak near the $ 120,000 milestone, the attention does not stop at the organization's wave of purchase but also focuses on a single entity: MicroSostgy (now Strategy) The company currently holds more than 3% of the total Bitcoin supply.

However, while many people praised the company's bold investment strategy, some analysts warned that it could become a "financial timer bomb", putting the entire cryptocurrency market into a large system risk that has never been seen.

Huge bets: 597,325 BTC and 7.2 billion USD debt
MicroStrategy currently owns 597,325 BTC worth more than 71 billion USD at the present time. However, most notably, most of this Bitcoin has been purchased through financial leverage: $ 7.2 billion of convertible debt has been mobilized since 2020.

The average purchase price is about 70,982 USD/BTC, which means that if the price drops below this threshold, the company will start to record losses on paper. With the no cash buffer like ETFs, MicroSostgy will not have a buffer zone to reduce financial pressure in case the BTC price drops sharply.

Risks from leverage and fragility of capital model
Unlike spot ETFs that are strictly delivered, the operating model of microostostgy depends on the price increase of MSTR stocks and the premium compared to the net asset value (NAV).

According to analyst Leshka.eth, MSTR shares have been 100%higher than NAV. This positive feedback round when stock prices increased to help mobilize more capital to buy BTC can collapse as soon as the market psychology changes negatively.

If the stock price plunged and lost insurance premiums, MicroSTGY would have difficulty accessing new capital, reducing the ability to maintain the strategy of accumulating BTC. In the bad scenario, the company may be forced to sell BTC to repay the debt, pushing the market into the vortex of sell and panic.

Compared to Mt. GOX, 3AC and Terra-Luna
Some experts warn that the level of risk from the BTC position of MicroStgy may be worse than the collapse of MT. GOX, 3AC hatching fund or $ 40 billion explosion of the Terra-Luna ecosystem.

All have in common: using high leverage, fragile financial structure and quickly withdrawal of capital when the market is turned. Leshka emphasized that if a company holds 3% of the total supply of BTC forced to sell off, the consequence will not be merely a loss that can lead to a large -scale collapse throughout the system.

MicroStrateGy is now a "bitcoin fund" and the risk also increases
The core business activities of the MicroStrategy Software segment have reduced revenue to the lowest level of 15 years: 463 million USD in 2024. Human resources have also dropped by 20% since 2020.

Currently, most of the company's value depends entirely on Bitcoin, with a variety of diversification. In the eyes of many investors, this is no longer a technology company but a "Bitcoin Fund" with leverage, with the only basic property of BTC.

This goes against Bitcoin's initial decentralized philosophy, when 3% of the total supply is in the hands of a single business organization.

Some positive points but there are many questions
Not all analysts evaluate pessimistic. Micostostgy's convertible bond drought is in the range of 2027–2031, with low short -term interest payment pressure. The company can also choose to dilute stocks instead of selling BTC, if it is necessary to increase capital.

However, the financial model of MicroStrategy still depends greatly on the market belief, expecting Bitcoin price to continue to increase and new capital flows from shareholders. If this belief is wobbly, the entire structure can collapse quickly and cause a widespread earthquake that has occurred in the famous industry collapses.

Conclude
MicroStrateGy is currently a symbol of extreme optimism for Bitcoin, and is also a system risk point not to be missed. In a market that was sensitive to bad news and liquidity, a company holding more than $ 70 billion in BTC faced the financial crisis could cause consequences far beyond any collapse in the past.

Investors should closely monitor MSTR shares, Bitcoin price movements around the $ 70,000 area and any signs from the MicroSTGY leadership about the strategic change. In the good scenario, the company can continue to lead the wave to accumulate BTC. But in the bad scenario, this could be the trauma of a worse adjustment than what the market once witnessed.